In the 2020 Presidential Election eyes been focussed on the early primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa, according to 538.com, the candidates are ranked as: Sanders 22.6%, Biden 22.3, Buttigieg, 17.1%, Warren, 14.0%.
But perhaps more interesting, California polls ( see todays LA Times( have Sanders in lead in state’s presidential primary race. The poll shows Warren second and Biden running third. California is known to be a liberal state, but Sanders appears to have growing support from voters who label themselves “very liberal.” That very liberal group makes up about 1 in 3 Democratic primary voters in the state.
The 2020 California Democratic primary will take place on Tuesday, March 3, 2020, as one of 14 contests scheduled on “Super Tuesday” in the Democratic Party presidential primaries, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The California primary is a semi-closed primary, with the state awarding 494 delegates, of which 415 are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary. The rest are elected officials and others who attend as un pledged so-called super-delegates.
The rest of the state’s likely primary voters remain divided among several candidates. Former Vice President Joe Biden remains the front-runner nationally, but in third place in California with 15% in the poll.
“California’s primary electorate is relatively liberal,” said Berkeley political science professor Eric Schickler, co-director of the institute. “The state is more conducive to one of the candidates on the left.”
Biden narrowly trails Sanders among voters who call themselves somewhat liberal, moderate or conservative, but runs 33 percentage points behind him among the very liberal.
California Democratic Party’s rules have delegates go to candidates who get at least 15% of the vote statewide or in a congressional district.
Candidate Bloomberg gets 6% in the poll, up from 2% in November. He shares the second tier of candidates with Pete Buttigieg, at 7%, Sen. Amy Klobuchar is at 5% and Andrew Yang,, at 4%.
So what is good for Biden? He remains the candidate the state’s voters are most likely to say would beat President Trump. About a third of likely primary voters say so. Sanders comes in second on that score with about a quarter of voters — mostly his own supporters — calling him the one with the best chance of beating Trump in November.
Back to Iowa, where the question of electability has dominated the debate and in New Hampshire. In California, the issue of how much of a priority to put on picking an electoral winner sharply divides voters. About two-thirds of Sanders’ supporters put priority on a candidate who agrees with them on issues. Biden supporters go the other way,
There is a generational clash in voting preferences between Sanders and Biden. Sanders’ support among younger voters has been steadily growing over time. Because of this, turnout will be extraordinarily influential in determining the outcome.”
In the broader picture, 13 other states will hold contests on March 3rd, with about 40% of the delegates to the nominating convention will be allocated that day.
538.com attempts to forecast who’s ahead in the national polls. They update the average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. The latest results are:
Biden 26.7%
Sanders 21.0%
Warren 14.9%
Bloomberg 8.3%
Buttigieg 7.4%
Yang 4.3%
Klobuchar 3.2%
Steyer 2.1%
In summary, as the nation thinks ahead to the November election where the Democratic nomination race has tightened at the top, each Democratic candidate tested by a Fox poll bests Trump in hypothetical head-to-heads. Trump lags behind Biden by 9 points (50-41 percent) and Bloomberg by 8 (49-41). Those leads are outside the poll’s margin of error.
Biden leads Trump by 17 points among women, while the two tie among men. And Trump is up by 14 points among white men, while Biden leads by 52 points among non-white men.
Trump trails Sanders by 6 points (48-42 percent), Warren by 5 (47-42), Buttigieg by 4 (45-41), and Klobuchar by 1 (43-42). These matchups are within the error margin.
So that’s the picture from a variety of polls. The NABWMT urges you to vote in the primaries and in the very important November elections.