With President Biden’s approval rating mired in the 30s and with nearly 80 percent of voters saying the country is heading in the wrong direction, all the ingredients seem to be in place for a Republican sweep in the November midterm elections.
But Democrats and Republicans begin the campaign in a surprisingly close race for control of Congress, according to the first New York Times/Siena College survey of the cycle. The survey show a 41 to 40% advantage for the Democrats.
Democrats have gained about three points on average congressional ballot compared with surveys taken beforehand.
The results suggest that the wave of mass shootings and the recent Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade have, at least temporarily, insulated the Democrats from a hostile national political environment while energizing the party’s predominantly liberal activist base.
But economic problems and cultural issues have increased the class divide in the Democratic Party as Republicans appear to be making new inroads among nonwhite and working-class voters — perhaps especially Hispanic voters — who remain more concerned about the economy and inflation than abortion rights and guns.
For the first time in a Times/Siena national survey, Democrats had a larger share of support among white college graduates than among nonwhite voters — a striking indication of the shifting balance of political energy in the Democratic coalition. As recently as the 2016 congressional elections, Democrats won more than 70 percent of nonwhite voters while losing among white college graduates.
With four months to go until the election, it is far too soon to say whether the campaign will remain focused on issues like abortion and gun control long enough for Democrats to avoid a long-expected midterm rout.
If it does, a close national vote would probably translate to a close race for control of Congress, as neither party would enjoy an advantage in the race. Partisan gerrymandering has slightly tilted the map toward Republicans in the House, but Democrats enjoy the advantages of incumbency and superior fund-raising in key districts.
Recent unfavorable news for Democrats, in the form of Supreme Court rulings, and some tragic news nationally might ordinarily mean trouble for the party in power, but that’s not what the results suggest.
In the survey, guns, abortion or the Supreme Court were the most important problem facing the country represented about one in six registered voters combined. Those voters preferred Democratic control of Congress, 68 percent to 8 percent.
Some of the hot-button social issues thought to work to the advantage of Republicans at the beginning of the cycle, like critical race theory, have faded from the spotlight. Only 4 percent of voters combined said education, crime or immigration was the most important issue facing the country.
The proportion of voters who opposed the court’s decision — 61 percent — was similar to the share who said they supported Roe v. Wade two years ago.
At the recent NABWMT my husband and I urged our members to not despair and fight for our rights. This survey shows we may succeed and turn the tide against conservative forces.