U.S. voter turnout on Nov. 5 is projected to be around 65 percent, with more than 158 million ballots counted, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab. That number is a dip from the 2020 U.S. presidential election, which registered a historic 67 percent turnout.
Voters in liberal strongholds across the country, from city centers to suburban stretches, failed to show up to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris at the levels they had for Joseph R. Biden Jr. four years earlier, contributing significantly to her defeat by Donald J. Trump, according to a New York Times analysis of preliminary election data.
The numbers help fill in the picture of Mr. Trump’s commanding victory, showing it may not represent the resounding endorsement of his agenda that the final Electoral College vote suggests. Mr. Trump won the White House not only because he turned out his supporters and persuaded skeptics, but also because many Democrats sat this election out, presumably turned off by both candidates.
Counties with the biggest Democratic victories in 2020 delivered 1.9 million fewer votes for Ms. Harris than they had for Mr. Biden. The nation’s most Republican-heavy counties turned out an additional 1.2 million votes for Mr. Trump this year, according to the analysis of the 47 states where the vote count is largely complete.
The drop-off spanned demographics and economics. It was clear in counties with the highest job growth rates, counties with the most job losses and counties with the highest percentage of college-educated voters. Turnout was down, too, across groups that are traditionally strong for Democrats — including areas with large numbers of Black Christians and Jewish voters.
The decline in key cities, including Detroit and Philadelphia, made it exceptionally difficult for Ms. Harris to win the battlegrounds of Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The drop-off is an extraordinary shift for Democrats, who, motivated by Mr. Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, had turned out in eye-popping numbers for the three subsequent elections. They clipped his power in Washington in 2018, removed him from office in 2020 and defeated many of his handpicked candidates for battleground races in 2022.
Democrats said they need a new way to re-engage voters who are fatigued by the anti-Trump message and distrustful of both parties.
42% of young voters ages 18-29, cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election, a lower youth turnout than in 2020 when youth turnout above 50%—and approximately on par with the 2016 presidential election. We also estimate that youth voter turnout in battleground states may have been much higher: 50% on aggregate in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The reasons behind the drop-off are varied. For one, some backsliding could be expected after the record turnout in 2020, which was aided by pandemic rule changes that increased mail voting.