Here I am in a deep blue state California but the minority Republican voters can upset me by using the a provision of our state Constitution.
Two very important things happened in the California recall election in recent weeks. First, the polls have moved closer to even, suggesting that Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is suddenly in real jeopardy of being recalled. And second, Newsom and the California Democratic Party have responded to that by doubling down on a dicey strategy they charted from the outset: getting supporters to avoid selecting a potential Democratic replacement.
Californians are almost evenly divided over whether to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom from office, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll.
This dispels the notion that our Democratic voter majority will provide an impenetrable shield for Newsom, and reveal a vulnerability created by a recall effort that has energized Republicans and been met with indifference by many Democrats and independent voters.
The poll found that 47% of likely California voters supported recalling the Democratic governor, compared with 50% who opposed removing Newsom from office — a difference just shy of the survey’s margin of error.
Conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, leads in the race to replace Newsom among the dozens of candidates in the running. 40% of likely voters remain undecided.
So Newsom might be recalled, but Democrats … don’t want people to vote for a Democratic replacement? Even just in case?
Newsom has fought to tie the effort to Trump, who is widely unpopular in the state, while the Republican candidates have had to navigate a party remade by the specter of the former president.
Here in California we pride ourselves as being the center of the “resistance” to Trump, but Trump also received more votes in California in November than in any other state. It’s a quirk of California’s size that such a Democratic stronghold — President Biden overwhelmingly won the state with 63.5% of the vote — could also be home to more Trump voters than anywhere else.
Having successfully deterred any prominent Democratic politician from running, Newsom and the state Democratic Party are urging voters to leave the second question on the ballot blank. That means if voters recall the Democratic governor from office next month, his replacement is likely to come from a group of top Republican candidates — almost all of whom have publicly supported Trump.
And if California’s overwhelming Democratic majority doesn’t weigh in on the second question, Newsom’s successor could be chosen by a GOP electorate that’s much further to the right. Polls show far-right Republicans leading if Newsom is replaced, and the winner could be elected with only a fraction of the total vote.
California is now all but synonymous with the Democratic Party, but for decades it leaned to the right. Republicans won the state in all but one presidential election between 1952 and 1988, and California had both Democratic and Republican governors during that period.
The state was once known for producing moderate Republicans who tended to hold more liberal — or at least libertarian — positions on social issues than the national party. But as the state grew more blue overall, its shrinking GOP contingent became decidedly more conservative.
California’s last two Republican governors conducted their administrations as pro-choice, fiscally conservative, pro-environment. Republicans from this era, many of them may have become ‘no party preference’ or they may have moved to another place, another state. Party concentration has also moved inland, with Republican votes in Los Angeles and the Bay Area starkly declining.
The California Republican Party of today is driven much more by cultural issues, as in the national change of the electorate, and social issues tie into that.
The front-running libertarian Elder, a longtime black talk radio host, quickly shot to the top of the field after entering the race a little over a month ago. His strong libertarian views distinguish him ideologically from the rest of the pack, as do some of the convention-defying positions he has entertained on a wide array of topics.
Elder believes in ending welfare and entitlements. Elder has a history of making anti-LGBT remarks on Twitter. He isn’t afraid to deny the reality of systemic racism by maligning Black people and casting Black people as unusually crime-prone.
So the take away from all of this is that here at the NABWMT we should not be complacent when we live in a blue state, especially given our national situation on voting rights is threatening our democracy.
If you wish to help the NABWMT fight policies against voter rights, join our political action team and email us at: nabwmt@nabwmt.org
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Source: By Julia Wick Los Angeles Times