The reversal of Roe vs. Wade is likely to be the first step in a campaign to rescind legal rights and protections that the Christian right in America finds objectionable.
They want to turn constitutionally protected rights into political questions at the state level.
Two decades of gains in federal protections for LGBTQ Americans have been based on constitutional right to privacy, a right rejected by the leaked draft opinion overturning Roe.
Thus, the Supreme Court may no longer see queer Americans as worthy of equal protection under federal law.
The foundation of LGBTQ rights has long been fragile. These protections have been notoriously difficult to entrench in federal legislation.
The Equality Act, which would ban discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity, is stuck in the Senate, and transgender rights are, if anything, regressing nationwide.
Without a constitutional right to privacy, activists on both sides will shift their focus to the states.
The far-right Republican strategy will not be to invalidate gay marriage immediately but rather to diminish equality by allowing states to enshrine discrimination against queer people in areas like adoption, partner benefits, schooling and public accommodations.
Many states already have laws on the books to protect same-sex marriage and to bar LGBTQ discrimination in employment and housing.
But more than a dozen states have no explicit ban on discrimination over sexual orientation or gender identity.
And in some, conservatives have gone on the offensive to enact hateful new laws.
Republicans will make schools and children the next battleground.
“Don’t say gay” laws will muzzle public school teachers and trans girls playing sports will be outlawed.
LGBTQ people are labelled as pedophiles “grooming” vulnerable children.
Because of redistricting and polarization, statehouse districts are now almost entirely won and lost in primaries.
To woo an enthusiastic base for those low-turnout elections, Republican candidates court the anti-gay extremes. That is the clearest path to election.
White evangelicals made up only 19% of the voting public nationwide in 2020 but constituted 34% of all Trump voters.
The anti-gay Christian nationalist movement is better organized than gay rights proponents. The Southern Poverty Law Center notes that the organizations like the “Alliance Defending Freedom” raises and spends millions of dollars a year supporting anti-LGBTQ mobilization in America and overseas.
But, even in many of the states enacting anti-LGBTQ legislation, a majority of voters support gay rights.
Eight in 10 Americans, and 65% of Republicans, support nondiscrimination laws.
Marriage equality has support from 70% of Americans.
In states considering “don’t say gay” bills this year, there are at least 31 out queer statehouse members.
Although the political game is stacked against them in many states, the pro-equality folks will have the tide of history — and growing public support — on their side.
But in the shorter term, they are likely to lose legislative battles as these state-by-state conflicts heat up.
I expect to see an increasingly polarized America when it comes to LGBTQ rights. Transgender people will be demonized in red states and slowly recognized and validated in blue states.
Gay, lesbian and bisexual Americans will see their rights curtailed in red states that may reverse the recent phenomenon of queer Americans being able to live and flourish in conservative states.
We may see a return to the days of exodus when LGBTQ people felt pushed and pulled to the big, coastal, gay-friendly cities.
But eroding federal protections won’t alter a changing culture. Homophobia is no longer the majority view of the American public.
The growing visibility of queer people in public life has shattered stereotypes and built empathy.
The question is: Will the silent, more moderate, Republican majority find attacks on their LGBTQ neighbors too hard to stomach?
And in the NABWMT, we fight hard for queer rights, let us fight even harder in the upcoming Mid Term Elections.
To learn more please visit nabwmt.org and subscribe to our Podcasts, Youtube, and Facebook channels.
Source: LA TIMES