The Red Wave is just a trickle
In the latest results from the pivotal midterm elections, Democrats appeared to defy historical odds in critical midterm elections as an anticipated “red wave” did not materialize.
The President’s party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats.
Turnout smashed all records.
That might help explain why polling failed to capture the widespread feeling among Democrats, which grew after the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade and the Jan. 6 hearings over the summer, that their core democratic rights were increasingly at risk.
Republicans were still poised to win one if not both houses of Congress, with possible transformative consequences for our freedom and values.
Early results indicated that Republicans could end up with one of the weakest performances in decades by the out-of-power party against a first-term president’s party.
We are anxiously watching Senate races in Nevada and Arizona, as well as a tight contest in Georgia that could be headed for a December runoff to determine control of the upper chamber, much like two years ago.
A Republican House, even with a smaller majority than expected, would still be a major blow to expansive legislative ambitions and presaging two years of grinding partisan conflict focused on congressional investigations, fights over the debt ceiling and potentially government shutdowns.
To keep control of the Senate, Democrats need two of their endangered incumbents, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, to hold on to their seats. But Ms. Cortez Masto was trailing with 75 percent of the ballots counted and Mr. Kelly’s sizable early lead has shrunk as more results come in.
If only one of those two prevails, Democratic control would rest on either the last ballots in Georgia pushing Senator Raphael Warnock over the required 50 percent, or on a runoff in that race that would captivate the country.
We are heartened by the hard-fought victory of Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor, John Fetterman, over the celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, flipping a seat held by Republicans for the only party switch in the Senate so far.
Other Democrats once thought to be vulnerable held on easily, including Senators Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, Michael Bennet of Colorado and Patty Murray of Washington state.
But in Ohio and North Carolina, two Republicans endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump cruised to victory. The author and investor J.D. Vance defeated his Democratic opponent, Representative Tim Ryan, in Ohio, and Ted Budd won the North Carolina seat being vacated by the departing Richard Burr.
In the fight for the House, only one Democratic incumbent, Representative Elaine Luria of Virginia, had been defeated by early Wednesday. But her loss was matched by the defeat of a veteran Republican, Representative Steve Chabot, in Ohio. The G.O.P. also won two open House seats vacated by Democrats in Florida.
Republicans started the evening needing just six more seats to win the majority. With seats still in play in New York and several Western states, control of the House is anything but settled, and it could be days before the next majority is clear.
Here is what else you need to know:
Voters were also determining which party would control 36 governorships and an array of critical state positions. Democrats won the much-watched contest in Pennsylvania, where Josh Shapiro swamped Doug Mastriano, a high-profile far-right ally of Mr. Trump who embraced his lie about the 2020 election.
Democrats held onto the governor’s mansions in New York, Michigan and Wisconsin after tough contests. But in Florida, the Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, ran up a decisive re-election victory that could set him up for a run for president in 2024, possibly against Mr. Trump, his onetime patron.
Inflation was a key issue in the race, leaving Democrats grasping for a response. But Mr. Trump’s influence saddled Republicans with weak candidates, and the Democratic base turned out in large numbers. Here are five takeaways from the elections.
Voters in California, Michigan and Vermont chose to enshrine abortion protections in their state constitutions, indicating that, when asked directly, a broad cross section of Americans want to protect abortion access.
In Kentucky, where abortion is currently banned, voters rejected an amendment that would have said there is no constitutional right to the procedure.
Gov. Tony Evers celebrating his re-election win in Madison, Wis.
For Mr. Evers, a Democrat and former state schools superintendent who campaigned for re-election on a refurbished yellow school bus, it served as a bit of an “I told you so” to a legion of critics who for years have described him as something of a human wet noodle.
In a state that has long elected big personalities, Mr. Evers is more likely to talk about his pickleball game than feed red meat to the base.
That image served to immunize Mr. Evers against some of the harshest Republican attacks — especially in the suburban counties that have long made up the heart of the Wisconsin G.O.P.
For all that Wisconsin Republicans focused on crime, the party couldn’t reverse the erosion of support in the crucial Milwaukee suburbs that have served as the heart of the G.O.P. base in the state for generations.
Mr. Evers won because he was able to duplicate the strong showing for Democrats in the counties that ring Milwaukee. A decade ago, in the 2012 presidential race, Mitt Romney won Waukesha County by 84,000 votes. On Tuesday night, Tim Michels, Mr. Evers’s G.O.P. challenger, won the county with a margin of fewer than 46,000 votes.
Kris W. Kobach, the hard-right Kansan whose prosecutions of voter fraud made him a national Republican figure but was rejected by voters in the last two elections, completed a political comeback by winning the race for state attorney general.
Pat Harrigan, a Republican who lost a House race in North Carolina’s 14th district, acknowledged defeat in a message to supporters. Last week, Harrigan criticized his opponent, Jeff Jackson, a Democrat, for showing one of his homes in a TV ad after a bullet had pierced a window in his parents’ house last month, according to a police report. Jackson took down the ad, which had featured footage of a different residence, Harrigan’s lake house.
Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, has been re-elected as the secretary of state in Michigan, according to The Associated Press. She had faced repeated harassment during the campaign and fought back a challenge from the Republican candidate, Kristina Karamo, who made false claims of fraud in the 2020 presidential election central to her campaign.
Diverse candidates make history in the midterms.
Maura Healey, the nation’s first openly lesbian governor;
Maxwell Alejandro Frost, the first Generation Z member of Congress;
Wes Moore, the first Black person elected governor of Maryland;
Katie Britt, the first woman elected to the Senate from
The first Generation Z member of Congress. The nation’s first openly lesbian governor. The first Black governor of Maryland.
More women were nominated for governorships and state legislatures, more Black people nominated for the Senate and more L.G.B.T.Q. people nominated for the House than ever before.
Robert Garcia, a Democrat who won a House seat in California’s 42nd District, is the first openly gay immigrant elected to Congress. Mr. Garcia’s family immigrated to the United States from Peru when he was a child, and he was undocumented before obtaining citizenship as a young adult.
Wes Moore, a Democrat, is the first Black governor of Maryland, and only the third Black governor elected since Reconstruction. Aruna Miller is the first woman of color to be elected lieutenant governor there, and the first Asian American woman elected to any statewide executive office in Maryland.
Voters in California, Michigan and Vermont chose to enshrine abortion protections in their state constitutions
Results of competitive Senate races in five states — Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Alaska and Wisconsin — remained outstanding early Wednesday.
According to the most recent projections, Republicans are favored to win control of the House while the Senate is leaning toward the Democrats.
Given all of this, it becomes critical to continue our fight for our freedom and values.
As Mamie Till-Mobley said: “We are only given a certain amount of time to do what we were sent here to do. You don’t have to be around a long time to share the wisdom of a lifetime. You just have to use your time wisely, efficiently. There is no time to waste.”